Will the Fed lower interest rates in July? Here's what traders think


The news put further pressure on the Dollar, with markets now having to seriously contend with the prospect of managerial instability at one of the world's most important financial institutions.

The Fed on Wednesday suggested rate cuts might start as soon as next month, saying it was ready to take action in the face of growing economic risks. The dot-plot forecast showed that nearly half of the Committee members expected lower rates in 2019. That language echoed a remark that Chairman Jerome Powell made two weeks ago that analysts interpreted as a signal that rate cuts were on the way.

His comments came a day after it emerged Trump had discussed demoting Powell.

"If this was a reaction to the Trump-Powell report, then it is likely we will see a reversal of some description".

"If (Powell) can pitch this as realigning nominal rates in light of the low inflation environment, it is much less of a shock", Reinhart said. "We're also looking at global growth". "They're going to be making an announcement very soon". From there, the Federal Reserve Act only allows the President to remove a Fed governor with "cause", usually covering things like legal misconduct.

By using the Fed to pump easy money into the economy, the risk of a slowdown ahead of voting day is diminished.

Almost half of the Fed's policymakers now show a willingness to lower borrowing costs over the next six months.

The US Federal Reserve primed markets for an interest rate cut last night by warning of greater uncertainty in the economy.

That partial retreat reflects that even with the Fed's shift, "the market will be left with a United States central bank that may not be as dovish as rivals in Europe and elsewhere, a dollar-positive notion", said Joseph Manimbo, senior market analyst at Western Union Business Solutions.

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The president has previously explored firing Powell. Apart from the propriety of jaw-boning what is supposed to be an independent central bank, it's bad economics.

Policymakers at the US central bank said at the conclusion of their two-day meeting this week that they expect one rate cut next year and one rate hike in 2021.

Seven of the 17 are forecasting two rate decreases by the end of 2019, according to projections that were also released Wednesday.

That was not enough to change the median outlook for the Fed's targeted overnight lending rate, which officials projected to remain in a range of between 2.25% and 2.50% for the rest of this year.

"The FOMC did nothing". When they met in March, no officials had forecast a rate cut. "That was perceived an invitation to buy bonds, equities and any currency other than the dollar", says Kit Juckes, a foreign exchange strategist with Société Générale in London.

Even Chair Powell, in his press conference, downplayed the firmness of the Fed's dot plot.

Business investment is slowing, uncertainty has increased, and the USA economy is growing at a "moderate" pace, the Fed said Wednesday, a notable downgrade from last month when the central bank characterized the economy as "solid".

Complicating the timing of possible rate cuts is an escalation of attacks on the Fed by Trump as he gears up for his 2020 re-election campaign.