International Monetary Fund predicts India will grow at 7.3% in 2018-’19


The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has cut global growth projection to 3.7 percent for this year [2018] and 2019.

IMF's forecasts for Hong Kong's economic outlook are mixed: it raises its forecast for 2018 by 0.2 percentage points to 3.8%, while cutting its forecast for 2019 by 0.3 percentage points to 2.9%. It cited USA tariffs on solar panels, washing machines, steel and aluminum, in addition to retaliation by trade partners, as potentially depressing factors.

US President Donald Trump has accused China of deliberately manipulating its currency to gain a trade advantage, claims Beijing consistently rejected.

When the world's two biggest economies are "at odds", Obstfeld said, that is going to create "a situation where everyone is going to suffer". The IMF has also revised down its forecast for Indonesia's growth.

Financial Tensions It said after years of an extremely supportive financial environment, the global economy remains vulnerable to a sudden tightening of financial conditions.

Rebuilding Fiscal Buffers It noted that public debt has increased in emerging markets over the past decade, and is projected to increase further in numerous largest economies over the next five years.

Although the Prime Minister has requested loans from friendly countries and promised the residents that he will recover the funds that were stolen by corrupt officials, financial help is in short supply.

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While the global economy is still on track to match last year's pace, which was the strongest since 2011, the new outlook suggests fatigue is setting in and the overall performance masked divergence with mounting weakness in emerging markets from Brazil to Turkey.

The fund urged governments to focus on policies that could share the benefits of growth more widely, helping counter the growing mistrust of institutions and avoiding "protectionist reactions to structural change".

In a downcast assessment on the global economy, the International Monetary Fund pointed the finger at trade policy tensions as part of its reason for predicting slower global growth. That could result in higher-than-expected interest rates from the Federal Reserve and stock market uncertainty.

The US will also see its growth "decline" once its fiscal stimulus, delivered through wide-ranging tax cuts "goes into reverse" according to Mr Obstfeld.

Moreover, the report says that the inflation in Azerbaijan for 2018 will be 3.5 percent, and then will fall to 3.3 percent in 2019, and to 3 percent - in 2023.

The IMF report said Pakistan's government has already begun moving in the right direction but had not gone far enough.

Not only have some downside risks that the last WEO identified been realised, the likelihood of further negative shocks to our growth forecast has risen.