IEA trims demand outlook for oil amid rising prices


On the New York Mercantile Exchange, June West Texas Intermediate crude added 35 cents, or 0.5%, to settle at $71.31 a barrel.

Meanwhile, stockpiles have shrunk in 40 of the last 58 weeks and are down almost 90 million barrels in the past year. Politics is at the heart of the recent increase.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) noted on May 9 that, in recent months, oil market dynamics have been shaped by strong growth in demand, compliance by countries party to the Vienna agreement to cut output, as well as the political crisis in Venezuela, leading to tighter overall market conditions.

Barkindo said the participating countries have demonstrated unwavering dedication to achieving the rebalancing of the global oil market, as demonstrated by the high conformity level of 149 per cent. In March the cartel actually managed to withhold about 2.4 million barrels per day.

Now the bullish picture for oil is becoming more clear - isn't it? That means that daily consumption has exceeded daily supply by nearly one million barrels per day.

The difference between the two benchmarks briefly widened to more than $8 a barrel, the widest gap since April 2015, reflecting surging USA crude supplies and a greater geopolitical risk to Brent-based crudes.

And remember, this big inventory decrease was without Iran being impacted by President Trump's decision to withdraw from the Iran Nuclear Deal.

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According to chief executive at Sun Global Investment Mihir Kapadia, so far 2m barrels of oil previously produced by Iran has been taken off the market.

"The ghost of the 10-year Treasury yield has returned to spook markets again, with equities failing to make much progress as attention fixates on the key global benchmark", Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG trading group, said Thursday. "The strong global demand for WTI will keep us supported, and even if some of the global risks get reduced, WTI will benefit from the unwinding of the Brent versus WTI spread that is reflecting most of the geopolitical risks".

Rising prices, however, have another effect: They call forth efforts to find more supplies.

In a weekend message on the New Year, U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres issued a red alert instead of an appeal, saying that numerous world's problems can be addressed only through unity.

US sanctions on Iran have shifted the focus of oil market analysis from fundamentals to geopolitics, but it remains too early to forecast the potential impacts on the Iranian and global crude markets, the International Energy Agency said Wednesday.

Oil fell on Wednesday ahead of an anticipated rise in US crude inventory that could provide more evidence that demand may be slowing in spite of ongoing crude output cuts by producer group OPEC and imminent USA sanctions against Iran, Reuters reports.