OPEC Sees Balanced Oil Market Only By Year-End Due To Production Glut


The reserves in the U.S. also reported an increase of 1.9 million barrels to 420.25 million barrels for the week to February 2. Brent saw a similar jump from the mid-$50s to $70.

This time around the downward swing could be aided by a rebound in the strength of the dollar.

Oil prices are back on the rise today after a steep sell-off last week took the black stuff to its lowest level of the year. Still, rising production, particularly from the United States may outweigh demand gains.

"We expect that we will be able to affect the entire market, I can't say exactly when we will start, but we believe that the agreement shall be in effect for the entire year 2018", he said. "The stock market and interest rates can really affect oil a lot", Mark Waggoner, president of Excel Futures, told The Wall Street Journal. However, US inventories are expected to grow during the first quarter of this year. "We will look for criteria to make sure the market is stable at all times".

European Brent oil traded at 63.82 dollars per barrel, 1.64 per cent more than on the previous trading day.

The WTI Crude Oil market has rallied significantly during the day on Monday but is starting to run into trouble near the $61 level, an area that is congruent with an uptrend line that has been important.

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As seen in this chart from the Commonwealth Bank, productivity at major oil and gas fields is improving, creating a real risk that the rebalancing of the global crude market may be delayed.

In the short run, the bears are back as US shale output is skyrocketing. Hedge funds and other money managers have piled into bullish bets on crude, leaving positioning in the futures market overextended. "If regional areas of oversupply can not find pockets of demand, prices will decline", said Michael Tran of RBC Capital Markets.

Crude edged higher after the worst weekly decline in two years as OPEC shrugged off the threat that USA shale drillers will swamp the market with excess supplies. But that pipeline of projects is now on the verge of drying up, which raises questions about the availability of supply next year and beyond.

Oil was rebounding from its biggest weekly decline in two years, though gains were limited due to concerns over a resurgence in USA shale. "I do think there is a potential for spike ..." It raised estimates for growth in non-OPEC supply in 2018 by about 100,000 barrels a day to 1.8 million a day - approximately equal to the amount of production OPEC and its partners promised to cut.

Nevertheless, wooed by rising crude prices, shale producers, particularly in the U.S. - who are not party to the deal - are ramping up output to cash in on the boom. "Yeah, absolutely we can".